Cycle analysis has a long history and is also part of technical analysis. All markets appear to be subject to cyclical patterns and forces caused by economic influences and countless other factors. Stock market movements seem to take place with cyclical regularity and timing your trades to coincide with anticipated cyclical movements can be very rewarding. Wall Street Courier offers some very reliable cycles for subscribers.
Large Block Index
The Large Block Index is calculated from the number of upticks and downticks in large block transactions of single trades of 10 000 shares and over. An uptick is at a price higher than the last previous trade and initiated by a buyer. A downtick is at a price lower than the previous trade and initiated by a seller. The rationale behind the Large Block Index is quite simple. It measures activities and extremes in institutional sentiment and behavior. When the ratio of upticks rises to very high levels, it indicates that the institutions are buying heavily, reaching a fully invested position and therefore lowering their cash reserves.
Conversely, when the ratio of downticks rises to high levels, it indicates that the institutions are selling and are raising cash. When the institutional behavior reaches extremes, the market will turn in a contrary direction. This indicator has often signaled major reversals and has also prevented investors from plunging into the market at the wrong time. The chart below shows you this indicator on a 10-day moving average.
Why are some traders more successful than others? There are probably as many answers as there are traders out there. But you will undoubtedly agree that most of the money is being made in a trend, especially as far as options and futures are concerned. In options trading your biggest enemy by far is time. You need to have the patience and discipline to wait for a trend in the market in order to succeed on the long run. The same rule applies to any short-term oriented trader. The Global Futures Trend Index shows you clearly when to enter the market. This index is computed by dividing the daily highs by the sum of the daily highs and lows. A 10-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. As long as the readings of this index stay above the 80%-level there is a solid bullish trend in progress. Any weakness should be used to go long or to buy call options, preferably of stocks which are in a clear uptrend, or stock index options. Readings below 20 indicate a bearish trend. Strong days should be used to short stocks which are already weak, or to buy put options. As long as this indicator is in neutral territory don't do anything unless you are a savvy stockpicker, insider or a long-term value investor.